My plan was to make the January column the beginning of an expose of the bike business, showing who makes money and where... but it's taking longer than I thought. Since I have this extra month to "kill", I will follow the lead of PBS's Bob Cringeley and make some "Crystal Ball" predictions about our sport and the industry. Of course, since crystal tends to shatter upon impact, just like an aluminum frame, I'll use a Cr-Mo ball. Next January we will look back and see how I did... so, without further ado, Ten Predictions For 2004.
#1. Both sanctions will see a significant decline in rider numbers this year, and the NBL will suffer more than the ABA. When you have Dave Mirra appearing on "Punk'd", that's a pretty sure sign that XXXXtreeeeem BMX is starting to lose its excitement and momentum. It's unlikely to affect Mr. Mirra, since his endorsement contracts will run for a few more years, but it will affect our little sport. The Xtreem tide lifts the racing boat because more BMX bikes of any type on the street means more potential racers, but as fewer new BMX bikes are sold we will have fewer new riders. The ABA has some marketing in place to try to combat this, but the NBL has nothing up their sleeveless shirts at all. Look for a 10-20% decrease in rider count this year with perhaps a 5% drop in track count, almost all of it happening to the NBL. Which leads me to prediction #2:
#2. The NBL will continue its efforts to become a Florida-only sanctioning body. When times are tough, the NBL has a proven history of responding by cannibalizing the existing rider base. Since at least half of the effective rider base is in Florida, look for the NBL to try to entice more of these riders to pay more National fees. This will hurt the Florida State Series, but nobody will care. Meanwhile non-Florida tracks will have more and more trouble getting help and money from the NBL, which may cause some of them to do the sensible thing and turn ABA. The Board of Directors will take their traditional path of doing nothing while praying the Olympics will save them.
#3. Complete bike prices will rise... Most BMX riders neither know nor care about the tailspin of the US dollar in the world currency market, but they will find out in the next year how it affects them. Taiwan and China are now the primary producers, by volume, of the world's BMX bicycles. While both of these countries pursue special policies for managing the value of their currencies relative to the dollar, China is particular is facing a fiscal crisis brought about by failed bank loans and Taiwan cannot stave off the falling greenback forever. As a result, complete bike prices are going to rise, and rise quickly, by as much as twenty-five percent in the next year. Even "US-made" completes will suffer because they often use bearing assemblies and components which are made overseas. This was bound to happen, if only because modern completes are such conspicuously good value. Fifteen years ago, a GT Pro Team sold for $449; a 2004 MOSH Method Four Star sells for around $399 (about $250 in 1989 dollars) and is a far, far superior bicycle. So if you are looking for a complete bike, don't wait. On the other hand...
#4. ...but frame and fork prices will fall. Riders are growing tired of paying $399 for a frame that cost $135 to build. Look for the average transaction price of high-end frames to fall closer to the $300 mark, even as those frames continue to improve. The shrinking of our sport has also increased the percentage of customers who are on some kind of "team" or "support deal" and who pay a lower, but still profitable, price for their frames. Greater competition for a small customer base will also have its effect on the gimmick fork market. It doesn't take much to call Taiwan and get some stickers put on a carbon fiber fork, so look for the price of these forks to continue to fall.
#5. The NBL will take steps toward selecting a single vendor for Nationals. Although the NBL has failed at nearly everything it has tried in the past two decades - from becoming an "F-1 bicycle" sanctioning body, to entering the freestyle market, to putting on a dual-purpose national at Woodward - it has never failed to put the screws to its own customers. Surely Mr. Tedesco and company are casting an envious eye at the ABA, which managed to extract yet another source of income from its long-suffering membership when it entered into an exclusive agreement with Pro Bike Parts to be the "single vendor" at its National events. With a single vendor, everybody wins. The vendor can charge more for products and force customers to purchase certain brands, while the sanctioning body can reap higher fees. Oops - I forgot to include the riders in "everybody". So what. You can bet that the NBL would like to do the same thing. The only question is which vendor they should invite. Dan's would be an obvious choice... but some of the other vendors are politically powerful and are tied to local tracks which might flee to the ABA if the NBL acted too rashly. Nevertheless, the potential fiscal benefits to the Hilliard, Ohio Trailer Club are too high to be ignored for much longer. Speaking of Dan's...
#6. Dan's will continue to improve its reputation in the sport. America's only forty-million-dollar BMX bike shop has been notorious for unsavory behavior since before today's "kiddiepros" shed their training wheels, but with the departure of Mr. Duckworth, who appears to have been responsible for much of said behavior, and with new oversight by a bunch of squeaky-dorky dot-commers from the Alloy conglomerate, this perception is gradually changing. The reports of used parts sold as new, misleading product descriptions, and bootlegged videos and shirts have significantly declined in the past year. Unfortunately, the Dan's team has failed to get with the program and the past year has, if anything, further soiled their already filthy rep. At some point, one of the Alloy corporate types will realize that the Dan's team does much more harm than good to their business prospects, and that will be the end of this unpleasant business. Anyone interested in hastening that day could call 276-670-2116, which is the Alloy headquarters general phone number, and discuss the recent conduct of the Dan's team with the most important person you can get on the phone.
#7. Low-spoke-count wheels could be big. Paired-spoke wheels are finally strong enough to use on tandems, which means BMX is next. The benefits of these wheels are numerous but they include increased stiffness, lighter weight, and less aero resistance. Although Rolf and some of the other big paired-spoke manufacturers probably view BMX as socially undesirable, Shimano certainly doesn't and they have a fairly strong paired-spoke program in place. If the wheels come, they will be a big success. To begin with, their gimmick factor is high, and BMXers love the gimmick factor - but more importantly than that, they just scream "RACE!!!" when you look at them. More and more racers are looking for ways to visually distinguish their bikes from the dirt-jumper scoots and this is an unmistakable way to to do it.
#8. A professional rider will be paralyzed, or killed, in a BMX race. This is a prediction I don't want to make but I see little chance of it not happening. As the "pro section" fad runs its course, more and more tracks are adding said sections, often without considering the maintenance and safety issues involved. Letting the lip "die" on a twelve-foot double makes riders complain; doing the same for a twenty-four-footer could get somebody killed. The reports of multiple carbon fork failures at recent Nationals do not reassure me on this issue. As the number of riders hitting the ground face-first from ten feet up increases, the likelihood of a serious injury or fatality (say it in the Mortal Kombat voice: "FATALITY!") increases. This, frankly speaking, would be a good time for some of the Pros to get together and make some mutual decisions to ensure their safety - but nobody wants to be the first person to be a "coward". It may take the sacrifice of a young racer's life to change that viewpoint.
#9. South American riders will make bigger headlines. The "international" flavor of America's fastest classes took a bit of a step back with all of this Homeland Security business, but riders are figuring out how to deal with it - and the concentration of Nationals in Florida, which is often the first air stop for any trip a South American rider makes to the US anyway, will make it easier for them to excel. At the Christmas Nationals the "twentysomething" Expert class was a South American playground, with names like Vinicius Moreira, Javier "Jamalama" Larrea, Gabirel Zambrana and Jose Lima all appearing in the top results. There are many people who think that only a tragic accident kept Mario Soto from being the #1 Pro, and while I am not necessarily one of those people, I do think we have a South American #1 in our future. Not this year... and not next... but soon.
#10. Unsanctioned/third-party sanctioned racing is ripe for a comeback. The most important race in BMX history - the one which served as the opening scene for "On Any Sunday" and which lit the BMX fire in thousands of hearts across the nation - was an unsanctioned race. Many local tracks, particularly those which are on city property and have a little bit of liability shielding as a result, are finding that the sanctions are an impediment, not a help, to running a good local program. After all, most of the time the sanction doesn't help you build the track, doesn't help you run it, forces you to burden new riders with a sanction fee and entrance requirements, and then steals your best prospects for their never-ending National circus. I noted above that the ABA will benefit from the NBL's gradual collapse, but unsanctioned racing could be an even bigger winner. As Nationals move to Florida and local support disppears, the prospect of being able to run five-dollar, run-what-you-brung classes without the NBL's interference will become attractive to more and more track operators. What's the worst that could happen - that only fifteen riders could show up? That's the reality for many local tracks today. And if Alice Bixler can threaten to take Florida solo, as she did last year, why not take Ohio or Michigan solo? Eliminate the sanction fee, forget the Nationals, and run a solid grassroots series with a meaningful state championship. It worked in 1973, and it could work again.
We'll see how cloudy my Cr-Mo ball was a year from now. In the meantime, have a happy New Year, and make a prediction of your own - that you will be a faster, or at least, happier rider in the twelve months to come. See you next time!